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First Division
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
Sat 07 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 1 won · 1 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 95.0%
book 1.08x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 80% (n=1994)
• short price 1.08x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 19/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1994, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.9% (n=164)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
95.0%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
lean (62.9%)
@ 06 Nov 17:59 · 1.66x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 80.2%
pick lost
Home or Draw
solid (95.0%)
@ 06 Nov 17:59 · 1.08x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
73.5%
Draw
21.5%
Away win
5.0%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:59
scoring fit λ 2.23 / μ 0.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.0%
|
19.95x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.5%
|
4.65x | 49.7% n=187 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
73.5%
|
1.36x | 49.7% n=187 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — AEK Larnaca 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum AEK Larnaca 2.33 ppg vs Karmiotissa 1.0 ppg
AEK Larnaca · last 6
07 Nov · First Division
4-1
W
31 Oct · First Division
2-2
D
26 Oct · First Division
2-0
W
21 Oct · Cup
3-2
W
18 Oct · First Division
1-1
D
12 Oct · First Division
1-0
W
Karmiotissa · last 6
07 Nov · First Division
4-1
L
03 Nov · Cup
2-0
W
30 Oct · First Division
1-0
W
25 Oct · First Division
0-5
L
17 Oct · First Division
2-1
L
09 Oct · First Division
0-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · First Division
AEK Larnaca 4-1 Karmiotissa