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First Division

AEL vs Digenis Ypsonas

Sat 07 Nov 16:00 0 minutes final 3–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 12/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3031)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
59.8%
Draw
23.8%
Away win
16.4%
calibrated 07 Nov 10:59
scoring fit λ 1.92 / μ 0.92
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
16.5%
6.08x 49.7% n=187 risky lost
Draw
23.8%
4.21x 49.7% n=187 risky lost
top Home win
59.8%
1.67x 49.7% n=187 lean won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 4 meetings — AEL 2W / 1D / 1L · momentum AEL 2.0 ppg vs Digenis Yps… 1.33 ppg
AEL · last 6
07 Nov · First Division 3-1 W
03 Nov · Cup 2-1 W
31 Oct · First Division 2-0 L
25 Oct · First Division 1-3 L
18 Oct · First Division 0-2 W
11 Oct · First Division 2-1 W
Digenis Ypsonas · last 6
07 Nov · First Division 3-1 L
31 Oct · First Division 2-2 D
24 Oct · First Division 1-1 D
17 Oct · First Division 2-1 W
14 Oct · Cup 0-2 W
10 Oct · First Division 1-3 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · First Division AEL 3-1 Digenis Ypsonas
02 May 26 · First Division Digenis Ypsonas 1-1 AEL
09 Feb 26 · First Division Digenis Ypsonas 3-0 AEL
26 Oct 25 · First Division AEL 1-0 Digenis Ypsonas