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Premier League
Al Salmiyah SC vs Kazma
Sun 08 Nov 16:25 0 minutes final 3–2 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 75.0%
book 1.46x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (85.0%, n=20)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• priced 1.46x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 85.0% of 20 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 16/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 74.8% (n=938)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Safer
65.8%
Draw or Away
safest leg we would still back — lower variance, smaller payout.
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (75.0%)
@ 08 Nov 17:28 · 1.46x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
34.2%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
40.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:28
scoring fit λ 1.25 / μ 1.39
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
40.8%
|
2.45x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.0%
|
4.01x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
34.2%
|
2.92x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Al Salmiyah SC 3W / 4D / 6L
· momentum Al Salmiyah… 2.17 ppg vs Kazma 1.0 ppg
Al Salmiyah SC · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
3-2
W
30 Oct · Premier League
2-2
D
24 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
10 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
06 Sep · Premier League
1-0
W
01 Sep · Premier League
0-2
W
Kazma · last 6
08 Nov · Premier League
3-2
L
04 Nov · AGCFF Gulf Champions …
6-0
L
27 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions …
1-2
L
23 Oct · Premier League
2-1
W
19 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
14 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions …
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Premier League
Al Salmiyah SC 3-2 Kazma
29 Jun 26 · Premier League
Kazma 3-0 Al Salmiyah SC
31 Dec 25 · Premier League
Kazma 1-1 Al Salmiyah SC
14 Sep 25 · Premier League
Kazma 0-1 Al Salmiyah SC
15 Jan 25 · Premier League
Al Salmiyah SC 3-1 Kazma