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Liga Profesional Argentina
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Platense
Sun 08 Nov 23:00 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 4.5 goals · 93.3%
why
• league PROVEN (83.1%, n=59)
• type ledger 82% (n=109)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 83.1% of 59 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 71.5%)
draws 28.3% of matches
team history 19/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U4.5: 81.7% hit (n=109, 90d ledger)
measured band: 87.8% (n=1085)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.3%
Under 4.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.1%
Draw
28.0%
Away win
27.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 00:43
scoring fit λ 1.23 / μ 0.91
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 525 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.9%
|
3.58x | 45.0% n=525 | risky | won |
| Draw |
28.0%
|
3.58x | 45.0% n=525 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
44.1%
|
2.27x | 45.0% n=525 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — San Lorenzo d… 5W / 4D / 3L
· momentum San Lorenzo… 1.33 ppg vs Platense 1.83 ppg
San Lorenzo de Almagro · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-2
L
01 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
2-2
D
25 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-0
D
18 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-2
W
11 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-0
W
03 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
3-0
L
Platense · last 6
08 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-2
W
01 Nov · Liga Profesional Arge…
2-0
W
29 Oct · Copa Argentina
1-1
D
25 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-2
W
18 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
0-1
L
11 Oct · Liga Profesional Arge…
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Liga Profesional Arge…
San Lorenzo de … 0-2 Platense
25 Apr 26 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Platense 0-1 San Lorenzo de …
16 Aug 25 · Liga Profesional Arge…
Platense 2-1 San Lorenzo de …
25 May 25 · Liga Profesional Arge…
San Lorenzo de … 0-1 Platense
14 Feb 25 · Liga Profesional Arge…
San Lorenzo de … 2-1 Platense