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Serie B
Ceará vs América Mineiro
Sun 08 Nov 00:15 0 minutes final 0–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.4%
why
• league PROVEN (78.5%, n=65)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 78.5% of 65 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 67.0%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 30/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.4%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
54.3%
Draw
25.1%
Away win
20.6%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 1.63 / μ 0.91
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 387 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
20.6%
|
4.86x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | won |
| Draw |
25.2%
|
3.98x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
54.3%
|
1.84x | 46.3% n=387 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Ceará 2W / 3D / 3L
· momentum Ceará 0.67 ppg vs América Min… 2.0 ppg
Ceará · last 6
09 Nov · Serie B
0-1
L
02 Nov · Serie B
2-1
L
28 Oct · Serie B
0-2
L
17 Oct · Serie B
2-2
D
13 Oct · Serie B
1-0
L
09 Oct · Serie B
1-0
W
América Mineiro · last 6
09 Nov · Serie B
0-1
W
01 Nov · Serie B
1-3
W
27 Oct · Serie B
1-0
W
17 Oct · Serie B
1-0
W
13 Oct · Serie B
1-0
L
08 Oct · Serie B
0-1
L
Head-to-head last 5
09 Nov 26 · Serie B
Ceará 0-1 América Mineiro
18 Jul 26 · Serie B
América Mineiro 1-1 Ceará
19 Nov 24 · Serie B
Ceará 1-0 América Mineiro
28 Jul 24 · Serie B
América Mineiro 2-2 Ceará
01 Oct 22 · Serie A
Ceará 1-2 América Mineiro